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Jobs, jobs, jobs…

Counter-CutBefore casting your vote on Tuesday, please consider the following:  The unemployment figures used as a barometer of economic health are unreliable.

Obama’s Layoff Bomb” cites a series of recent “mass layoff actions” directly related to Obama’s economic policies. You won’t hear about these in the mainstream news media. “Mass layoff actions” are the sign of a sick economy, not a healthy one.

The Job Numbers, in Context” examines the most common fallacy in jobs reports. These reports typically announce a large number of jobs “created”, but ignore the number of jobs actually required by our growing population. For example, according to this article 60,000 jobs were created in May, but the economy requires a monthly job creation rate of at least 90,000 jobs to break even with demand. So in effect, the economy is falling behind by 30,000 or more jobs per month – in spite of the optimistic presentation of job numbers. It’s like trumpeting each month, “We got halfway to our goal!” Halfway to the goal each month will never reach the goal.

An analysis in The New York Times, “Fact-Check: An 11 Percent Unemployment Rate?” concludes that a more realistic unemployment rate is 11%.

NBC News trumpets that the unemployment rate fell to 7.8%, in spite of the fact that

“Economists blame the so-called fiscal cliff for the slowdown in business hiring”,
“Businesses are not hiring people”,
“Persistently poor labor market conditions”, and
“The number of jobs created wasn’t that high but the unemployment rate came down and the participation rate went up a little bit, so it’s confusing. All in all, it doesn’t change the trajectory of what the jobs environment has been.”

So clearly NBC News understands that the unemployment numbers are unreliable.

Last, let’s look at CNN’s upbeat report “Obama closer to breaking even on jobs”. The article leads with the following:

“Is President Obama a job creator? Not yet. But he might be by Election Day.”

The article’s basic thrust is that by election day Obama has a shot at replenishing all the jobs that were previously lost on his watch. But the article totally ignores the growth in our labor force (growing demand for jobs) during the last four years. Replenishment is not growth and recovery; it’s simply driving up joblessness. So even under CNN’s most optimistic scenario Obama is a jobs loser, and his jobs creating “recovery” is nothing more than financial gymnastics.

The truth is:  If we want job growth, we need change and hope, not hope and change.

All is not as it looks


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